Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.
Identifieur interne : 000405 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000404; suivant : 000406Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.
Auteurs : Alexander J. Mastin [Royaume-Uni] ; Frank Van Den Bosch [Royaume-Uni] ; Femke Van Den Berg [Royaume-Uni] ; Stephen R. Parnell [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences [ 1471-2970 ] ; 2019.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- microbiologie : Maladies des plantes, Rhododendron.
- méthodes : Surveillance de la population.
- physiologie : Phytophthora.
- épidémiologie : Maladies transmissibles.
- Humains, Modèles biologiques, Royaume-Uni.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Royaume-Uni.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic : United Kingdom.
- epidemiology : Communicable Diseases.
- methods : Population Surveillance.
- microbiology : Plant Diseases, Rhododendron.
- physiology : Phytophthora.
- Humans, Models, Biological.
Abstract
The global spread of pathogens poses an increasing threat to health, ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate the trade-off between earlier and/or more reliable detection and higher deployment costs, we need to consider the impacts of test performance, test cost and pathogen epidemiology. Regarding test performance, the period before new infections can be first detected and the probability of detecting them are of particular importance. We propose a generic framework that can be easily used to evaluate a variety of different detection methods and identify important characteristics of the pathogen and the detection method to consider when planning early detection surveillance. We demonstrate the application of our method using the plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in the UK, and find that visual inspec-tion for this pathogen is a more cost-effective strategy for early detection surveillance than an early detection diagnostic test. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0261
PubMed: 31104597
PubMed Central: PMC6558562
Affiliations:
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Parnell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1 Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre, School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford , Greater Manchester M5 4WT , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>1 Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre, School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford , Greater Manchester M5 4WT </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Greater Manchester M5 4WT </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. 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As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate the trade-off between earlier and/or more reliable detection and higher deployment costs, we need to consider the impacts of test performance, test cost and pathogen epidemiology. Regarding test performance, the period before new infections can be first detected and the probability of detecting them are of particular importance. We propose a generic framework that can be easily used to evaluate a variety of different detection methods and identify important characteristics of the pathogen and the detection method to consider when planning early detection surveillance. We demonstrate the application of our method using the plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in the UK, and find that visual inspec-tion for this pathogen is a more cost-effective strategy for early detection surveillance than an early detection diagnostic test. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">31104597</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>28</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1471-2970</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>374</Volume><Issue>1776</Issue><PubDate><Year>2019</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>08</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>20180261</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1098/rstb.2018.0261</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The global spread of pathogens poses an increasing threat to health, ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate the trade-off between earlier and/or more reliable detection and higher deployment costs, we need to consider the impacts of test performance, test cost and pathogen epidemiology. Regarding test performance, the period before new infections can be first detected and the probability of detecting them are of particular importance. We propose a generic framework that can be easily used to evaluate a variety of different detection methods and identify important characteristics of the pathogen and the detection method to consider when planning early detection surveillance. We demonstrate the application of our method using the plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in the UK, and find that visual inspec-tion for this pathogen is a more cost-effective strategy for early detection surveillance than an early detection diagnostic test. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. 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Mastin</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Parnell, Stephen R" sort="Parnell, Stephen R" uniqKey="Parnell S" first="Stephen R" last="Parnell">Stephen R. Parnell</name><name sortKey="Van Den Berg, Femke" sort="Van Den Berg, Femke" uniqKey="Van Den Berg F" first="Femke" last="Van Den Berg">Femke Van Den Berg</name><name sortKey="Van Den Bosch, Frank" sort="Van Den Bosch, Frank" uniqKey="Van Den Bosch F" first="Frank" last="Van Den Bosch">Frank Van Den Bosch</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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